Trade war continues to be a major concern for investors, with 31% predicting it to be the most significant threat to global growth this year, according to a public poll by Deutsche Bank Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO).

Other concerns cited as a threat to global growth in 2019 were European politics, softer GDP growth, earnings recession, quantitative tightening and central bank errors.

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Of those polled, 53% believed that the next global economic downturn would start between one and three years. Only 10% expected the wait to surpass three years.

Also, 37% said that the ‘late cycle’ environment would end within 12 months.

A separate poll of financial advisors by SEI found the majority (77%) predict a market downturn over the next two years, with big market correction, geopolitical uncertainty, and trade war among their key concerns.

Optimism in Asia

Respondents were most optimistic about the performance of the economy in Asia-Pacific, with 47% holding the view.

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Thirty one percent of respondents had a positive outlook about the US economy. Only 10% of respondents had a similar view on the Eurozone.

“We forecast 2.4% US GDP growth in 2019 compared with 1.6% for the Eurozone. We have a long-term positive view on Asia within emerging markets, based on factors such as its solid fundamentals and policy flexibility. But we expect Chinese growth to slow to 6% in 2019,” the CIO noted.

When asked which fixed income asset classes would perform best in 2019, 28% opted for investment-grade bonds and 26% selected emerging markets hard currency.

Respondents were also positive about technology, healthcare, and sustainable investing as long-term investment themes.