At Private Banking & Wealth Management London 2024, hosted in Victoria, the keynote speech from Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, highlighted the difficult economic times ahead.
He stated that the current market was “the most complicated environment I have ever seen in terms of economics”.
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It is “very difficult to see what central banks are going to do”, he added, stating that “the short term is very hard to read”.
Upcoming changes worldwide
BNP Paribas Fortis is the Belgian arm of BNP Paribas and took great notice of the elections within that country this year. In fact, many countries will be having an election this year and trends are beginning to show.
Gijsels said: “What we saw in Belgium is the same we see across the world and that is populists winning. The US election is almost a disaster in terms of choice, but one of them, if they survive until November, will be elected President.”
He continued: “It’s very hard to find voters to vote for you if you increase taxes or spending so we are stuck with deficits for some time to come. On the other hand, this makes it almost impossible to enter a recession.”
However, innovation is “interesting” in a market such as this as it is “a wildcard and definitely deflationary”.
Other predictions included “the largest commodities market ever seen” and while equities are not doomed, you “should play a much closer game as gains are lower than before”.
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